It’s more than halfway through the year, making it the perfect time to revisit our 2025 Food Waste Forecast and see how our predictions are panning out. From elevated food prices to GLP-1s to food waste policy, we’ve heard a lot about the topics we highlighted. Here’s our analysis...

Food waste reduction as a solution to high food prices… This year, reporting in outlets ranging from Marketplace to Slate to CNN all acknowledged what we know to be true—maximizing the value of the food you purchase by wasting less is a strategy to cope with elevated food prices. And while recently released estimates from EPA and our own data all show that the average U.S. consumer spends close to $800 every year on food that ultimately goes uneaten, it has yet to be seen whether Americans are responding by wasting less. Policymakers and food businesses are uniquely positioned to help, and we hope that the latter half of this year shows some progress on this front. We will be keeping a close eye on this when we release our updated surplus food estimates early in the new year.

Rising influence of GLP-1 medications… “I think this is a really exciting point of inflection that we might be seeing here in terms of food waste and food system impacts,” noted Brian Roe, agricultural economist and professor at Ohio State University, during a May 2025 ReFED webinar on the topic of GLP-1s and their potential implications for food waste. Whether it’s decreased spending on groceries resulting in less food available to waste, increased demand for smaller portion sizes leading to less plate waste, or a shift in food preferences impacting what food gets wasted, experts in the space see big changes ahead as a result of the increased use of GLP-1 medications. And with an oral GLP-1 anticipated to hit the market in the near future, expectations are that the use of these medications will increase significantly.

New data providing a better picture of food waste hotspots… In February, ReFED released its inaugural U.S. Food Waste Report, which found that despite significant momentum in preventing and reducing food from going to waste, 31% of the food supply or 73.9 million tons of food went unsold or uneaten in 2023. Consumers continue to generate the largest amount of waste—starting this year, we improved how we estimate household food waste so we now have the ability to more accurately measure changes over time. In March, the U.S. Food Waste Pact (the Pact) and Pacific Coast Food Waste Commitment released an updated analysis of food waste in the retail and foodservice sectors, establishing new, first-of-their-kind benchmarks for these sectors at the national level. ReFED co-leads the Pact with World Wildlife Fund, and both organizations served as resource partners for the Pacific Coast Food Waste Commitment. We’ve also seen businesses releasing new data on waste diversion, including Amazon and Chick-Fil-A, and we anticipate more of these types of announcements as we get into the fall and events like Climate Week NYC and COP.

Food waste policy picking up speed… The pace and scale of policy change at the national level—across many issues—is unlike anything we’ve experienced for a long time. Fortunately, we’ve seen indications at both the state and federal level that food waste policy remains an area for bipartisan collaboration. At the state level, we’ve seen nine bills introduced this year that address food date labeling, as well as Maine becoming the last New England state to mandate organics diversion. (Meanwhile, Massachusetts published a report indicating that its organic waste ban has both boosted organics recycling and supported economic activity in the state.) At the national level, there have been inklings that addressing food waste could be on the agenda, including a mention in a brief from the America First Policy Institute stating that “government and the private sector must collaborate to reduce food loss and waste.” There’s also the possibility of a new, “skinny” Farm Bill this year that could present opportunities for legislation targeting food loss and waste. And finally, there are strong indications that the federal Food Date Labeling Act will be reintroduced this year, and we're cautiously optimistic that it could get the support needed to pass.

Food waste funding in a “wait and see” mode… At the halfway mark of the year, with approximately $350 million of private funding invested in food waste solutions so far, our expectations for a flat year appear to be in line with reality. Federal funding cuts, a de-emphasis on climate change, and a lack of exits represent a mixed bag in the investment space. Meanwhile, global climate tech venture capital and food and land use investment are down year-to-date. In the United States, recycling infrastructure has seen the largest share of investment, including a $90 million infusion for Divert to develop a new organics recycling facility in North Carolina. Meanwhile, private food waste funding is stabilizing after declining since 2021. On a hopeful note, we continue to hear interest from private and philanthropic funders.

What will the second half of 2025 have in store? That remains to be seen. But based on what we’ve observed so far, we’re confident that this year will continue to be a big one for food waste action.

Stay up-to-date on the food waste news you need to know and the latest and greatest from ReFED by signing up for our mailing list.