What’s Ahead? Our 2026 Food Waste Forecast

Bipartisan support in both the House and Senate for the federal Food Date Labeling Act, new national baselines for food waste in the retail and foodservice sectors, federal dollars committed to a national anti-food-waste consumer education campaign—we saw a number of “first-ever wins” in 2025 that signaled progress is happening to meaningfully reduce food waste in the United States. And as we look ahead to 2026, we’re feeling confident that the momentum will continue. As ReFED does every year, we’re providing our thoughts on a handful of food waste trends to keep an eye on in the months to come:

Inflation and high food prices encourage consumer behavior changes that can lead to food waste reduction.

In a November 2025 survey conducted by NielsenIQ and ReFED, Americans reported coping with elevated food prices by adopting meal preparation changes like using leftovers more (45%) and being more conscious of using up fresh foods before they go bad (40%), while 48% reported cutting back on non-essential items at the grocery store. In 2026, we anticipate these types of behaviors will grow in a way that could have a measurable impact on consumer food waste in the home. ReFED will continue to monitor these behaviors and residential waste volumes over the next 12 months and beyond.

Food businesses will prioritize solutions that can be embedded in core operations and drive business impact.

In 2026, we see food waste innovation moving toward integrated systems that embed prevention, efficiency, and diversion into core operations. The most scalable solutions—and the ones that will be prioritized by food businesses—will be those that minimize reliance on sustained behavior change. Take Mill and Whole Foods Market for example, who announced last December that the grocer will deploy Mill Commercial to process fruit and vegetable waste into chicken feed while generating insights that can help enable smarter inventory decisions and optimized ordering patterns.

Another way this might take shape is in restaurants offering customizable portions for customers. While on its face it might not sound like a food waste solution, nearly 70% of total food waste in restaurants comes from plate waste. And new research from ReFED and Datassential shows that nearly 60% of Americans are more likely to visit restaurants offering customizable portions (a number that jumps to nearly 75% for GLP-1 users), creating a business incentive for restaurant owners and operators to add flexibility to their portion options in the months and years ahead. ReFED will be monitoring this trend closely and looks forward to working with food businesses to implement scalable solutions that drive food waste reduction.

The continuation of bipartisan, administration-led support for food waste reduction at the national level.

In a Christmas Eve op-ed published in The Hill, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said, “When surplus food is reduced, redirected, or repurposed, families gain access to healthy meals, farmers and businesses find new value in products that might otherwise go unused, and communities strengthen systems that help keep America fed.” This commitment at the highest level of national government bodes well for food waste action in 2026, whether that be the passage of the federal Food Date Labeling Act, expansion of the U.S. EPA’s Feed It Onward initiative, or federal support for markets for imperfect produce. At the state level, constrained budgets might mean less funding for things like organics recycling infrastructure, but in 2025, we’ve been excited to see an ongoing commitment from state legislators to implement policies, which we hope will continue this year. ReFED looks forward to partnering with policymakers at all levels to take data-informed action to reduce food waste.

The proliferation of artificial intelligence will continue to make food waste solutions more effective and scalable.

Artificial intelligence is everywhere, and the food waste space is no exception. Innovators working across the prevention, recovery, and recycling spectrum are incorporating artificial intelligence to enhance purchasing and inventory management, improve waste tracking in foodservice settings, or better connect surplus food at grocery stores to consumers looking for discounts. In the coming months, ReFED will share an insights report on the intersection of artificial intelligence and food waste.

The clear connection between food waste reduction and social impact will unlock new funding from philanthropists and impact investors.

We often say that there’s a role for everyone in solving food waste, whether you’re motivated by economics, climate change, or caring for your neighbors. In 2026, we anticipate that more philanthropic funders and impact investors will become interested in food waste from a social impact perspective—food insecurity, food affordability, consumer savings, and more, as hunger and food prices remain top of mind. During the SNAP crisis in late 2025, food recovery organizations across the country stepped up to help fill the gaps and get food to people in need. It’s this type of action that we see motivating new funders to come to the space. ReFED will continue to engage with funders of all kinds who are interested in supporting food waste solutions through its Food Waste Funder Circle.

We look forward to monitoring these trends in the months ahead. And while any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, we’re feeling confident that 2026 will be a big year for food waste reduction. We’ll be sharing more about these trends throughout the year, including at our annual ReFED Food Waste Solutions Summit—which we always predict will be the best one yet!