What if demand for food per person dropped by 5%, 10%, or more? What would be the implications for food manufacturers, grocery retailers, or restaurants? And what would be the impact on food waste? These are questions we’ve been thinking about with the proliferation of GLP-1 medications.

One in eight U.S. adults have reported taking a GLP-1, a class of medications used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. These drugs significantly impact eating habits and have broad implications for the food industry. And their influence is only expected to grow, with estimates from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan projecting anywhere from 15 to 30 million Americans could be taking GLP-1 medications by 2030. To get a better understanding of what this means for food waste, we spoke with two experts who have conducted research on GLP-1 users—Monica Amburn, Vice President at Eat Well Global, and Brian Roe, Agricultural Economist and Fred N. VanBuren Professor of Farm Management at Ohio State University. Through these conversations, we identified four potential ways GLP-1s may impact how much food goes to waste in the United States.

• Decrease in demand for groceries, increase in demand for supplements: A recent study from Cornell and Numerator found that households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced grocery spending by about 6% within six months of starting the medication. This is in line with Amburn’s research, though with a slight caveat. Eat Well Global found that GLP-1 users are “diversifying where they are spending money, it’s not all coming from the grocery store.” Instead, Amburn hypothesizes that money that would have been spent on groceries is being spent on functional foods and supplements at stores like GNC, Vitamin Shoppe, and other online retailers. “It’s all about quality over quantity…GLP-1 users don’t have the appetite to eat much in one sitting, so they’re looking for small portions of nutrient-dense foods and supplements that maximize protein, fiber, and micronutrient intake.” If people are spending less on conventional groceries and more on functional foods and supplements, this could translate to less food waste.

• A desire for smaller portions leads to less plate waste: “Quality over quantity” could also mean an increase in demand for smaller portions. A PwC survey of 3,000 GLP-1 users found that 47% reported eating smaller portions. This creates a whole new market segment for restaurants. To cater to these customers, restaurants could create smaller portion options on their menus—something that could also help to reduce wasted food left on plates.

• A shift in food preferences impacting what food gets wasted: Both Amburn and Roe found that GLP-1 users reported a change in food preferences, with shifts away from high-fat and sweet foods. “Fried foods are a big thing people disengage with, as well as sweets and carbs,” says Roe. Notes Amburn, “Salty snacks, sweets, and carbonated soft drinks will be impacted for sure.” This could mean an increase in these types of foods going unsold or uneaten. At the same time, Roe’s research found that as GLP-1 users transitioned to eating more vegetables, they were less likely to agree that they wasted more food. Currently, fruits and vegetables constitute more than a third of total food waste. If GLP-1 medications create a trend toward eating more produce like Roe’s study suggests, we could see less wasted fruits and veggies in those households—pending they’re purchasing the same amount.

• Ripple effects throughout the supply chain: All signs are pointing to an increase in the use of GLP-1s. Amburn notes, “2030 is slated to be the year when some patents will expire in the U.S., and some generic versions of the drug may become more affordable and accessible—usage could increase then.” And if and when that happens, it could mean an increase in wasted food throughout the supply chain. “If there is a massive uptake of the medication, and the supply chain doesn’t take this into account, there could be waste earlier on in the supply chain because people aren’t buying the food,” says Roe. “It will take the food system time to catch up.” In the interim, that normalization could mean an increase in food waste.

Only time will tell if GLP-1s will have a positive or negative effect on the generation of wasted food. Roe believes the net impact will be positive for food waste reduction. “GLP-1 medications make you eat less food, meaning most people will buy less. Even if you’re wasting the same fraction, the same fraction of a smaller amount of food means less waste overall.”

You can learn more about Eat Well Global’s research on GLP-1s here, and about Ohio State University’s research here.

Be sure to sign up for our mailing list to stay up-to-date on ReFED’s analysis of GLP-1 medications and food waste, as well as all other ReFED news.