Last year, we saw significant momentum in both the public and private sectors in addressing food waste—from a new national strategy at the federal level to a landmark analysis showing significant food waste reduction at grocery retailers. We’ve talked previously about the country experiencing a “food waste moment,” where a range of external factors align to make it an opportune time to make real progress in food waste reduction. As we look ahead, while much is unknown, we feel confident that we will see further progress in 2025. As ReFED does every year, we’re providing our thoughts on some food waste trends to keep an eye on in the months to come:

• Food waste reduction as a solution to high food prices… Our analysis shows that the average American family of four throws out more than $3,000 worth of groceries each year. At the same time, Pew Research surveys show three-quarters of Americans remain very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods. With inflation and stubbornly high prices playing a key role in the minds of voters last November, there’s a real opportunity for the new administration and other policymakers to help consumers make the connection between cost and food waste, and implement solutions that maximize the value of the food they’re already purchasing.

• Rising influence of GLP-1 medications… One in eight U.S. adults have reported taking a GLP-1, a class of medications used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. The medications have been shown to change eating habits—impacting what, and how much, consumers buy. These drugs have broad implications for the food industry—potentially forcing companies to reposition or reformulate certain products, including by offering more options for portion sizes. They also may have an impact on food waste. Research from Ohio State found that among a survey of GLP-1 users, 25 percent of respondents agreed they had wasted more food since taking the drugs. Interestingly, the same study found that as GLP-1 users shifted to eating more vegetables on their diminished appetites, they were less likely to agree that they wasted more food. With Goldman Sachs estimating that 15 million people could be taking GLP-1 medications by 2030, their influence will only continue to grow. Be sure to keep an eye out for ReFED analysis on this subject over the coming months.

• New data providing a better picture of food waste hotspots… Over the past few years, we’ve been able to enhance our datasets with anonymized data from retailers that builds on previous estimates, enabling a more granular view of food waste hotspots. In 2025, we anticipate more data releases that will help paint an even better picture of food waste generation in businesses and at homes. This year, ReFED will be releasing a new analysis of residential food waste. We also can expect new data coming out from the U.S. Food Waste Pact focused on foodservice and retail at the national level. In addition, we will continue to see more satellite data tracking methane emissions down to specific locations such as landfills, which can help identify where capping and other controls will be most necessary (and according to what we’ve seen so far, show that actual methane emissions are higher than current calculations). Looking ahead, 2025 is the first time companies in the European Union will need to start reporting under the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, which will include a range of environmental impacts that for specific industries will encompass food waste as part of their broader reporting on resource use, waste management, and environmental impact. While non-EU-based companies don’t need to report until 2028, it still sets the stage to get a better picture of food waste generation at multinational companies.

• Food waste policy picking up speed… This past year was big for food waste policy—with California passing a game-changing food date label standardization law, progress reports showing the impact of organic waste bans in Massachusetts, California, and Vermont, and the USDA and FDA announcing a Request for Information on “industry practices and preferences for date labeling, research results on consumer perceptions of date labeling and any impact date labeling may have on food waste and grocery costs.” In 2025, between the Farm Bill and its opportunities for food waste guidance, potential federal and state action on date label legislation, and organic waste bans, this year might be the most consequential yet for food waste policy. As with any new administration, it’s an open question whether existing food waste commitments such as the National Strategy for Reducing Food Loss and Waste and Recycling Organics and 2030 Food Loss and Waste Reduction Goal will be maintained. But indications from President Trump’s first term point to a willingness to take action on food waste. The Zero Food Waste Coalition will be actively engaging in this area.

• Food waste funding in a “wait and see” mode… In recent years, a large portion of funding for food waste has been driven by venture capital activity more broadly, which has been in de-risking mode and is declining. Expectations for the new year provide a mixed bag, since lower interest rates may manifest in 2025 but are moderated by overall climate funding seeing a near-term decline and the potential for tariffs. We believe food waste funding will likely be headed for a similar (if not flat) year compared to 2024. That said, where funding is directed, we expect to see continued focus on supply chain technology development such as demand planning software and shelf-life extension, as well as facilities-based organics recycling. And with potential tariffs being discussed, we also might see a localization of food systems in the medium/long-term, which could mean funders focus on opportunities in their region and U.S. food production. Interested funders should consider joining the ReFED Food Waste Funder Circle to stay up-to-date on opportunities throughout the year.

We look forward to observing these trends over the coming months. And while any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, we’re feeling confident that 2025 will be a momentous year for food waste. We’ll be checking on these trends throughout the year, including at our annual Food Waste Solutions Summit—which we always predict will be the best one yet!