This month marks five years since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. COVID-19 had a profound impact on the food system, with business closures, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions causing significant fluctuations in surplus food levels. Back then, ReFED wondered which of these changes would be permanent and what our food system would look like in the future—particularly when it came to consumer waste. In those early days of the pandemic, we were heartened by stories of consumers who were diving headfirst into home cooking since eating out wasn’t an option in many areas. And we were hopeful that some of the positive changes we were hearing about would last.

So what ended up happening?

Impacts of the Pandemic on the Food System

Back in 2020, the impacts of the pandemic on the food system were swift. Some of the most visceral food-related images from those days were of farmers stockpiling crops with nowhere to send them or dumping milk on the ground. In spring of 2020, Dairy Farmers of America estimated that dairy farmers dumped as many as 3.7 million gallons of milk every day due to low prices and a drop in demand. ReFED’s COVID-19 Food System Review found that growers and producers experienced a spike in immediate and short-term waste (in the millions of pounds for large farmers) because of restaurant and foodservice closures, cruise line and airline cancellations, and other disruptions, which were the primary outlets for many current yields. Perishable supply chains experienced huge losses, some in the billions of dollars, due to losing restaurant and foodservice outlets. Meanwhile, according to FMI, 38% of U.S. grocery shoppers surveyed at the time reported greater success at avoiding food waste.

These and related factors had significant repercussions for surplus food. While we heard food loss and waste increased dramatically at the beginning of the pandemic, the food system rapidly adjusted—throughout 2020, total surplus food decreased to 56.8 million tons, down a huge 26% from the year prior. Some of the most drastic changes were in residential surplus food, which decreased from 24.2 million tons in 2019 to 10.4 million tons in 2020—a 57% reduction. Surplus food in foodservice decreased from 14.5 million tons in 2019 to 9.15 million tons in 2020, a reduction of more than 36%, likely driven by stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures.

These results led to discussion about whether pandemic-related changes would remain:

• Would consumers gain new planning and cooking skills as a result of eating at home more and in turn reduce the amount of food they throw out?

• Would restaurants simplify their menus to pare down on the number of options they offer, as well as make other changes that would potentially lead to less waste?

• Would retailers learn from supply chain shocks and get better at forecasting how much they purchase and stock, in turn decreasing their rates of unsold food?

How Surplus Food Has Changed Since the Pandemic

If these and other changes were to hold, one might expect that surplus food would remain at lower volumes. Yet according to new data just released in From Surplus to Solutions: 2025 ReFED U.S. Food Waste Report, surplus food started to creep back up in 2021 and 2022 and returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. In fact, the amount of surplus food measured in 2023 was identical to the amount in the 2016 baseline year for tracking progress to a 50% reduction by 2030 in line with national and international goals.

Digging into the numbers a bit, we see that surplus food in the retail sector went from 5.49 million tons in 2020 to 4.45 million tons in 2023, a decrease of 19%. In foodservice, surplus food increased 39% from 2020 to 2023, going from 9.15 million tons to 12.7 million tons. As indicated above, the most significant change was in residential surplus food, which increased from its pandemic-low to 26 million tons in 2023, an increase of 150%.

“The pandemic had a drastic impact on surplus food, particularly in the residential sector,” says Dana Gunders, president of ReFED. “While our hope was that some of the behavior changes that consumers made would stick, unfortunately, that isn’t what the data is showing. That said, the pandemic showed that consumers can change their behaviors when it comes to wasting food, and we hope that future consumer education and outreach can build on those behaviors and drive further reductions in surplus food.”

The Future of Surplus Food

Looking ahead, the big question will be, what do the 2024 numbers say? Have we leveled off or have we reached a new peak? We’ll be releasing the next annual ReFED U.S. Food Waste Report in early 2026, which will include new data and analysis for 2024.

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